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The Bigger Picture - May 2026

April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

Investor EducationMacroInvestment Themes
3 May 2026
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

The Bigger Picture - May 2026

April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

Investor EducationMacroInvestment Themes
3 May 2026
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

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The bond bear may not be ready to hibernate

We’re entering unchartered territory with the current global bond bear market both in terms of duration and magnitude. For an asset class which had previously been incorporated into the vast majority of portfolios primarily for its defensive attributes, this bear market has raised serious questions about how investors should view bonds looking forward.

Fixed InterestMacroInvestor Education
22 May 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Why Australian economic growth has ground to a halt

Worryingly, Australian economic growth decreased each quarter of 2023 so the economy has been in deceleration mode for some time now. The economy only grew 0.2% in Q4 2023, and 1.5% for 2023. Given the population has been growing faster than that, Australia has been in a per capita recession for some time now. In fact, this is the slowest rate of Australian economic growth since way back in the 1990s (excluding the pandemic and the GST introduction). In case you’re wondering why the Aussie economy is languishing while the global economy continues to grow at a decent clip, we take a look under the hood for a guide as to what’s coming next…

MacroInvestor Education
9 May 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

The charts that tell the surprising story of markets in 2024

What a year 2024 is turning into for global investment markets. Long term trends and playbooks are being turned on their heads on a weekly basis. It’s emerging as a year when it pays to have a long term investment plan to follow while the noise gets louder and adds to the market’s confusion. It’s also a year in which it’s important to understand why global markets are surprising so many investors to ensure you remain unsurprised by what’s happening, and thus comfortable sticking with your plan.

Investor EducationInvestment ThemesMacro
19 Apr 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 4 MIN READ

How many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb?

You may have heard the joke about central bankers … how many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb? None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have done it already. It won’t surprise you to hear not many central bankers find this joke funny. But what if the light bulb that needed changing was persistent inflation, and what if the market believes it can relax as the RBA has already changed that light bulb?

MacroAsset AllocationInvestor Education
13 Mar 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 7 MIN READ

Will the Fed throw kerosene onto the fire?

With global equity markets celebrating the prospect of impending rate cuts by the Fed, some investors have been wrong-footed by the extent of the recent enthusiasm, particularly in US tech stocks. If you’re underinvested and are considering joining the equity party in earnest, it’s worthwhile digging into the market’s Fed fund rate expectations for an understanding of whether market expectations are on point, or not. This situation may well dictate global and Australian equity market performance in the coming months.

MacroInvestor EducationShares
7 Mar 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Don’t ignore the liquidity feedback loop

With the US economy and stock market continuing to drive global markets, Aussie investors increasingly need to understand what’s driving American fund flows. Spoiler alert: it’s not just corporate earnings. There are liquidity drivers at play in the US that are creating remarkably strong feedback loops with stock valuations and the broader economy. Understanding how these liquidity feedback loops work may well provide clues as to what’s coming next for global equity markets, including the ASX…

Investor EducationMacroShares
22 Feb 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

The number economists are most likely to be wrong about in 2024

In the words of John Kenneth Galbraith, ‘We have two classes of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.’ You’d be forgiven for believing we are already in the midst of a recession given the amount of bearish economic commentary in recent months. However, at least in nominal terms, the Australian and global economies have continued to grow despite sharply higher interest rates—and it is nominal growth that matters most to equity markets. With the end of the year fast approaching, it’s timely to consider the 2024 economic outlook—and one particular economic forecast that stands out as vulnerable to being wrong as we approach the new year…

MacroInvestor Education
23 Nov 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Where the inflation monster does most of its work

The recent Australian Consumer Sentiment Snapshot reveals Aussie consumers have one particular economic factor front of mind… inflation. The inflation monster is impacting upon consumers’ disposable incomes, and more importantly it’s causing havoc in consumers’ minds where it’s doing most of its insidious work. It’s this growing awareness and fear of inflation which suggests we may be on track for inflation to trend higher than markets (and central bankers) currently believe. If that is indeed the case, the investment implications are significant…

MacroInvestor EducationAsset Allocation
9 Nov 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 8 MIN READ

China's economic slump casts a shadow over ASX

The economic news from China is getting worse. From deflation to falling exports, high unemployment, and a debt-laden property sector, the global economic powerhouse is facing significant challenges. Clearly, these growing economic challenges are bad news for the many ASX-listed stocks exposed to China.

MacroShares
6 Sept 2023
 · Ankita Rai
 · 5 MIN READ

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