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April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

By now, most of us have realised that the US-Israel-Iran war will have longer-term consequences beyond recent volatility. It’s accelerating a structural shift in global markets defined by tighter energy supply, more persistent inflation, and the fragmentation of trade and capital flows.

Buckle up. Markets are undergoing a structural shift. The era of easy gains driven by liquidity and exposure to US big tech appears to be fading. In its place is emerging a more selective environment defined by rising geopolitical risk, elevated inflationary pressures, and widening dispersion between companies, sectors, and asset classes.