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The Bigger Picture - May 2026

April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

Investor EducationMacroInvestment Themes
3 May 2026
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

The Bigger Picture - May 2026

April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

Investor EducationMacroInvestment Themes
3 May 2026
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

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Is a Volmageddon event brewing?

In the words of Russell Napier: ‘Financial history is the most important thing to study for anyone seeking to avoid the mistakes of the past.’ So what does financial history suggest may be coming in early 2025? And is a Volmageddon event (read: an extreme volatility event) brewing as a number of experts are warning? To answer those questions, we’ll focus on the main game in town, the S&P 500, since US stocks continue to drive global markets…

MacroInvestor Education
21 Jan 2025
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Are markets too bullish?

It’s fair to say the S&P 500 has led global markets up a wall of worry over the past couple of years. But the S&P 500’s gradual grind higher evolved into full on market euphoria when Trump won the US election so convincingly. We all know that market euphoria tends to end in tears. The dot-com bubble was a memorable example. With those memories in mind, it’s worth asking the question: are US/global markets too bullish?

MacroInvestor EducationShares
2 Dec 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

The ugliest two words in the dictionary

Trump talked a big game on tariffs during his journey back to the White House. ‘If I’m going to be president of this country, I’m going to put a 100, 200, 2,000 per cent tariff,’ on cars from Mexico he forewarned. He went so far as to describe tariffs ‘as the most beautiful word in the dictionary.’ Investors should prepare for two uglier words...

MacroCommoditiesInvestor Education
20 Nov 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

A storm is brewing in the US

With the S&P 500 rallying an historic 40% over the past twelve months, you’d be forgiven for thinking all is well with the US Government’s finances. After all, the state of the world’s largest economy is inextricably connected with the US Treasury’s financial health. Sorry to shatter that illusion, but the truth is very different. Do not read what follows if you prefer to believe in the US fairy tale…

MacroInvestor EducationInvestment Themes
6 Nov 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Market intel from Blackrock

Blackrock’s Q4 equity outlook report contains some useful intel to help investors make sense of global markets at this juncture. With the US election looming and the Fed’s initiation of a rate cutting cycle, there’s a lot for markets to worry about and celebrate. One thing’s for sure: it’s unlikely to be a boring end to the year.

MacroInvestor EducationManaged Fund
8 Oct 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 4 MIN READ

The biggest risk in the market right now

You may remember when the yen carry trade revealed itself as the catalyst for August’s sharp selloff across global markets. The knock-on effects of its unwinding surprised more than a handful of investors at the time. The sobering news is that the yen carry trade continues to linger and is arguably the market’s biggest risk right now. It may well be prudent for investors to prepare for a repeat of August’s volatility.

MacroInvestor EducationManaged Fund
1 Oct 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Does the Fed’s urgent action indicate a US recession is looming?

It’s not often that the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points in one move. It surely indicates the Fed is worried about the state of the world’s largest economy. If that’s the case, global investors, including in Australia, should sit up and take note. The key question at this juncture is: does the Fed’s urgent action indicate a US recession is looming?

MacroInvestor EducationAsset Allocation
25 Sept 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Yield is about to become more important

Remember how you felt about yield when interest rates were at historic lows? In those days when yield was scarce, investors placed a higher value on it, and it was of greater importance to investment valuations. Then everything changed when the developed world’s central bankers raised rates at the fastest pace in history. Yield suddenly became more abundant, and the market took some time to adapt to this altered market environment. In short, it was bad news for yield-focused investors who had to watch their capital values fall as yields rose.

Managed FundMacroInvestor Education
9 Sept 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Volatility’s back: stay calm and carry on

It’s been a wild ride for investors of late with volatility returning to global markets catalysed by the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. Whilst intermittent volatility shouldn’t surprise anyone, it has surprised the investors who’d grown to believe that equity markets gradually increase in value forever. What investors do next will arguably define whether 2024 is a good or a bad year for their portfolios…

Managed FundSharesMacro
6 Aug 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

What happens if the Fed cuts rates?

It’s been a wild ride in recent months for Fed rate expectations. Back in January this year, a buoyant US market expected seven Fed rate cuts by the end of 2024. By March, the market had sobered up a little and expectations had fallen to three rate cuts for the year. But now markets are only expecting one Fed rate cut in 2024. Interestingly, despite pricing out a full six rate cuts since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is up 15% year to date.

MacroInvestor Education
26 June 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Is your portfolio WWIII-proof?

The war in Ukraine signalled a step-change in global geopolitical risk which was further escalated by events in the Gaza Strip. Whilst the investment world remains hopeful (and possibly correct) that global peace will resume after these events, history is less comforting. The risk of a third world war has rarely been higher, and investors have rarely been less prepared for it. Being ready for the unthinkable may be more prudent than you currently believe.

Investment ThemesInvestor EducationMacro
29 May 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 8 MIN READ

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